Election Scorecard: Canada and Palestine
I've got to run to class in about ten-fifteen minutes, so I'm going to have to make this a quick post, and for that I apologize deeply, because both of these subjects are quite fascinating. But, to the matter at hand: we've had a couple of more elections since I last posted, so I thought I'd update y'all on both of them.
Canada: Everyone probably knows this already, but Canada, our northern neighbor took a right turn and handed the Conservative Party and it's leader Steven Harper a minority government to work with. The final tally of seats and vote share percentages from the CBC:
Conservative: 124 seats, 36.25%
Liberal: 103 seats, 30.22%
NDP: 29 seats, 17.49%
Bloc Quebecois: 51 seats, 10.48% o
Green: None!
Independent: 1 seat.
Basically, my post-mortem, as well as every other pundit in the Western Hemisphere is this: corrupt, scandal ridden Liberal government that had been around for nearly a decade and a half finally just got too corrupt, too scandal ridden and too damn exhausted for Canadian voters to put up with. Hence the change. But, it should be noted that this is a Conservative minority government! There may be Canadian Conservatives that dream of advancing bigger social agendas, but they have constraints upon them. Harper and company should tread carefully, which they probably will, but if they stick to the whole 'let's clean things up a bit' platform they ran on, they should be fine.
Palestine: Well, this is the shock of the morning, though I have no real idea as to why. Palestinians voted in their first parliamentary elections in about a decade yesterday and although last night there were Fatah members who were saying that they had managed to hold a slim majority on the legislative council, when the smoke cleared, this was not so! Hamas stunned everyone by securing upwards of 70-80 seats in the 132 members legislative council and everyone seems to be completely agog over what happens next. Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei and his cabinet have already resigned.
I don't know why people are surprised though. Let's look at some facts: 1. Fatah is hopelessly corrupt. We have all known this for a very long time now. Arafat and his cronies siphoned off international aid that was supposed to be going to refugees, blah blah blah. It's been a long standing complaint of everyone for years now. 2. Hamas, despite the attempts of the International community to paint it otherwise does have a political wing. And that political wing does do social welfare projects. I took a class on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict a few semesters back and the prof (who'd been to the area repeatedly) told us the same story: aid organizations, if they really wanted to get the stuff where it needed to go, wouldn't go to Fatah. No way, because then it would end up in someone's pocket- no, they would go to Hamas, because at least then they would know that the aid would get to the people it was going to help.
So, we have a hopelessly corrupt ruling party and a party that has won broad popular support not only because it blows shit up but because it you know, feeds the people as well. Hamas seemed like a viable option and alternative this time, so Fatah and it's corruption gets the big ol'middle finger from the voters. We should have all seen this coming a mile and a half away.
Why this is a good thing:
Hamas wasn't expecting to get this much support. Now they actually have to govern and that's where things get interesting. It's one thing to hand out food aid and blow shit up to win support, it's quite another to be responsible for everyone's needs and developing the infrastructure of a future Palestinian state. They have to keep everyone happy now, and it's going to be interesting to see if they are up to the challenge. They may not recognize Israel, but polls show that Palestinians support the two state solution, so now they're going to have to reconcile those two notions together some how.
It gives them legitimacy. This is also a bad thing, but look what happened with the PLO and the IRA. As soon as they were brought down from the trees and governments started talking to them, it defanged them somewhat. Everyone on the radio this morning was pretty much saying the same thing: now that they're in charge, Hamas is going to have to take a long, hard look at it's position on Israel and probably change it if they want to get anywhere at all.
It's Democracy: By all accounts, this election was free and fair and both sides played by the rules. This is a refreshing change from times past where things usually were stacked in favor of the Fatah Movement so Arafat's power wasn't weakened in any way possible. All in all, I think holding free, democratic elections is a very good thing, no matter who does it. As long as all sides continue to play by the rules of the game, then we should all quietly cheer, despite the complications of having Hamas in charge.
Why this is a bad thing:
Nothing may change. In fact, things may get worse. Hamas could stick to it's guns, began a radical transformation of Palestinian society and pushing towards a more fundamentalist Islamic state which is what they're kind of aiming for, I guess. The ceasefire could break down and then it could all very easily go to hell in a handbasket. Everyone is holding their breath to see what happens next.
It gives them legitimacy: OK, this is also potentially a good thing, but they have to evolve to make it work. They cannot stick to their 'let's push the Jews into the sea' routine and expect the International community to support them. If they try to, then the Peace Process is dead in the water and that's that. We could be potentially looking at a Palestinian State run by a terrorist group that refuses to renounce the use of violence. Not a recipie for love and happiness in the region.
What everyone else should do: OK, it's very simple here. Hamas needs to: a. Renounce the use of violence. and b. Recognize the right of the state of Israel to exist. If they can do those two things to the satisfaction of the international community and Israel, then why not talk to them? And before anyone gets on their 'we don't negotiate with terrorists' horse, remember this: Arafat wasn't just some random guy they found on the street in a khuffiya- no, he was the head of the PLO and organization that most of the rest of the world considered to be a terrorist organization! Israel and the world have done this before, and provided Hamas comes down out the trees a bit and follows the two main conditions set above, then they should give them a shot and see what happens.
Canada: Everyone probably knows this already, but Canada, our northern neighbor took a right turn and handed the Conservative Party and it's leader Steven Harper a minority government to work with. The final tally of seats and vote share percentages from the CBC:
Conservative: 124 seats, 36.25%
Liberal: 103 seats, 30.22%
NDP: 29 seats, 17.49%
Bloc Quebecois: 51 seats, 10.48% o
Green: None!
Independent: 1 seat.
Basically, my post-mortem, as well as every other pundit in the Western Hemisphere is this: corrupt, scandal ridden Liberal government that had been around for nearly a decade and a half finally just got too corrupt, too scandal ridden and too damn exhausted for Canadian voters to put up with. Hence the change. But, it should be noted that this is a Conservative minority government! There may be Canadian Conservatives that dream of advancing bigger social agendas, but they have constraints upon them. Harper and company should tread carefully, which they probably will, but if they stick to the whole 'let's clean things up a bit' platform they ran on, they should be fine.
Palestine: Well, this is the shock of the morning, though I have no real idea as to why. Palestinians voted in their first parliamentary elections in about a decade yesterday and although last night there were Fatah members who were saying that they had managed to hold a slim majority on the legislative council, when the smoke cleared, this was not so! Hamas stunned everyone by securing upwards of 70-80 seats in the 132 members legislative council and everyone seems to be completely agog over what happens next. Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei and his cabinet have already resigned.
I don't know why people are surprised though. Let's look at some facts: 1. Fatah is hopelessly corrupt. We have all known this for a very long time now. Arafat and his cronies siphoned off international aid that was supposed to be going to refugees, blah blah blah. It's been a long standing complaint of everyone for years now. 2. Hamas, despite the attempts of the International community to paint it otherwise does have a political wing. And that political wing does do social welfare projects. I took a class on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict a few semesters back and the prof (who'd been to the area repeatedly) told us the same story: aid organizations, if they really wanted to get the stuff where it needed to go, wouldn't go to Fatah. No way, because then it would end up in someone's pocket- no, they would go to Hamas, because at least then they would know that the aid would get to the people it was going to help.
So, we have a hopelessly corrupt ruling party and a party that has won broad popular support not only because it blows shit up but because it you know, feeds the people as well. Hamas seemed like a viable option and alternative this time, so Fatah and it's corruption gets the big ol'middle finger from the voters. We should have all seen this coming a mile and a half away.
Why this is a good thing:
Hamas wasn't expecting to get this much support. Now they actually have to govern and that's where things get interesting. It's one thing to hand out food aid and blow shit up to win support, it's quite another to be responsible for everyone's needs and developing the infrastructure of a future Palestinian state. They have to keep everyone happy now, and it's going to be interesting to see if they are up to the challenge. They may not recognize Israel, but polls show that Palestinians support the two state solution, so now they're going to have to reconcile those two notions together some how.
It gives them legitimacy. This is also a bad thing, but look what happened with the PLO and the IRA. As soon as they were brought down from the trees and governments started talking to them, it defanged them somewhat. Everyone on the radio this morning was pretty much saying the same thing: now that they're in charge, Hamas is going to have to take a long, hard look at it's position on Israel and probably change it if they want to get anywhere at all.
It's Democracy: By all accounts, this election was free and fair and both sides played by the rules. This is a refreshing change from times past where things usually were stacked in favor of the Fatah Movement so Arafat's power wasn't weakened in any way possible. All in all, I think holding free, democratic elections is a very good thing, no matter who does it. As long as all sides continue to play by the rules of the game, then we should all quietly cheer, despite the complications of having Hamas in charge.
Why this is a bad thing:
Nothing may change. In fact, things may get worse. Hamas could stick to it's guns, began a radical transformation of Palestinian society and pushing towards a more fundamentalist Islamic state which is what they're kind of aiming for, I guess. The ceasefire could break down and then it could all very easily go to hell in a handbasket. Everyone is holding their breath to see what happens next.
It gives them legitimacy: OK, this is also potentially a good thing, but they have to evolve to make it work. They cannot stick to their 'let's push the Jews into the sea' routine and expect the International community to support them. If they try to, then the Peace Process is dead in the water and that's that. We could be potentially looking at a Palestinian State run by a terrorist group that refuses to renounce the use of violence. Not a recipie for love and happiness in the region.
What everyone else should do: OK, it's very simple here. Hamas needs to: a. Renounce the use of violence. and b. Recognize the right of the state of Israel to exist. If they can do those two things to the satisfaction of the international community and Israel, then why not talk to them? And before anyone gets on their 'we don't negotiate with terrorists' horse, remember this: Arafat wasn't just some random guy they found on the street in a khuffiya- no, he was the head of the PLO and organization that most of the rest of the world considered to be a terrorist organization! Israel and the world have done this before, and provided Hamas comes down out the trees a bit and follows the two main conditions set above, then they should give them a shot and see what happens.
posted by Tom @ 8:46 AM
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