O, Canada!
I think I've mentioned this before, but Canada is set to have an election next month, and as it's pretty much par for the course that we down here in the sunny, balmy south (so to speak) don't know jack about Canada (myself included) I thought I would do some digging and at least set out the basics on who's who, what's what and just what the hell these crazy Canadians are doing having an election in the middle of winter anyway.
I know the cardinal rule of blogging is to use a spectacular spectrum of all kinds of eye-catching, sexy sources, but I'm just out for the basic information here- I could give a damn about people's opinion of the candidates and parties- that comes for later posts, this post is 'just the facts, ma'am' and as such, I went to a source that has all the info bundled up in one, easy to get place: the fine folks at the Canadian Broadcasting System.
So without further ado, I give you: Canada
The Info:
The Liberals:
--Leader: Paul Martin, Current Prime Minister
Alignment: Center Left
Number of Seats Held: 135 out of 308 seats in Canadian House of Commons
The Lowdown: These guys are pretty much the dominant party in Canadian politics and have been enjoying a pretty long 12 year stretch in charge of the place for quite some time now, mainly under the leadership of now ex-Prime Minister Jean Chretien- and now under his successor, Paul Martin. They've hit some rocky spots, however: first of all was a major storm of corruption (see below) that severely damaged their standings in the polls and left them running a minority government after elections this past June. So, the Liberals have kept limping along, striking a more conciliatory tone on the big issues and relying on the opposition parties to get work done. They brought the NDP (next up on our list!) in by promising to spend more money on New Democratic Priorities- and for about six months or so that worked. However, Prime Minister Paul Martin promised to call an election within 30 days of the final report on the corruption scandal, however, the opposition parties banded together to move that date forward, thus plunging Canada into it's current electoral brouhaha.
The New Democrats:
--Leader: Jack Layton
Alignment: Left
Number of Seats Held: 19 out of 308 seats in the Canadian House of Commons
The Lowdown: A solidly leftist party, the New Democrats have something of a Socialist flavor, being reluctant supporters of the Liberal Government and yet feeling that they haven't gone far enough. Job creation, de-criminalization of marijuana and improving the health care system are all big issues for this party- recently, their support got the Liberal Government's budget through the House of Commons, with an extra $4.6 billion added for NDP priorities. Yet they broke with the Liberals to force an election.
The Bloc Quebecois:
--Leader: Gilles Duceppe
Alignment: Sovreignty of Quebec
Number of Seats Held: 53 out of 308 seats in the Canadian House of Commons
The Lowdown: Pretty simple to explain: they want out of Canada and as soon as they can possibly manage it. Failing that, they're basically around to push Quebec's interests on the federal level- on fiscal matters, they're all about keeping as much money as they can handle under local control- and interestingly enough, they're advocates for a common currency of the Americas, which I didn't know.
The Conservatives:
--Leader: Steven Harper
Alignment: Right
Number of Seats Held: 99 out of 308 seats in the Canadian House of Commons (Official Opposition Party)
The Lowdown: Well, as you might expect, these guys are Conservative- and if any of this stuff sounds familiar to us down here in America, there's probably a reason for it. They push strongly for individual rights and responsibilities- free from governmental interference- fiscally, they're all about tax cuts, tough on crime, want to look at more local and private control for the Health Care system up there. (Sound like anyone we know? Or, rather, used to know?)
The Issues:
I'm not going to break down the whole chart of issues and all that jazz- if you really want to know that, you can go here and check this out- and see who you would vote for if you were in Canada, or something like that, I suppose. I will however, touch on this corruption thing and the perennial headaches of Quebec and The West.
The Corruption Scandal was basically this: the Liberal Government hired advertising firms (a few years back) to run campaigns, using pro-Liberal ad agencies, and then somehow no work got done and an awful lot of money got re-routed back into Liberal Party coffers. A big no-no. Anyway, they appointed a Judge, John Gomery to look into this mess and if you want to know more, here's his report.
Quebec and The West: Quebec's always been something of a sticky wicket in Canadian politics, as they're pretty blunt in their desire to get the hell out as fast as they can- last time they held a referendum on the issue was in 1995, and it came very close to passing (50.6% to 49.4%). However, that was the second rejection of independence for Quebec by Quebekers, the first being in 1980 by a 60-40 margin, and it sounds like the pro-Independance folks up there aren't going to go for a third try unless they're sure they've got a home run in the bag. But, the beast is stirring again, so we may see another referendum attempt in the next couple of years. The West too has been an issue in Canadian politics- but it's more of a mild headache than serious threat to Canadian stability- at least in the short term. Basically, the Western Provinces (British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan) don't like Ontario. They think that they have all the natural resources (which they do) and they should get a wee bit more control, money and respect for that. Instead, the general feeling is that they get continually shafted by the Federal Government in Ottawa. It's probably not going to be much of an issue in the election, but it's a long-standing gripe that has the potential (maybe) over the long term to morph into a Western twin to Quebec's eastern desire to get the hell out, as it were.
Current Polls and Prediction as of today:
Liberals: 36%
Conservatives: 27%
NDP: 17%
BQ: 14%
Green: 4%
Undecided: 14%
**Poll from 12/9-12/11, +/-3.1 percentage points
Prediction: No real change. I know it's still kind of early on in the game- we're only heading into week 3, and according to this poll, anyway, there are a pretty decent amount of undecided voters out there who are potentially up for grabs. Whichever party can get the majority of those folks to break for them could see some gains- or losses. But, the main opposition party, the Conservatives just aren't gaining any traction against the Liberals. Right out of the starting gate they were pretty strong, but now the air appears to have been let out of the balloon and it doesn't appear to be going back in yet. So that means, coalition deals will have to be made- and I think that favors the Liberals, as the NDP and the Greens are (potentially) more reliable allies, at least ideologically for them- and I can't see any reason that the Bloc Quebecois would join with a firmly pro-Federalist party like the Conservatives, even if it is just to keep the Liberals out.
I don't know. No one's gaining ground on the Liberals though, so this election could be very anti-climactic. I guess the opposition parties won't be so quick to force an election in the dead of winter next time though.
If you want some professional, slick coverage of this get your hands on the December 9th issue of The Economist. They've got a fourteen page report on all this stuff that is, of course, fantastic.
I know the cardinal rule of blogging is to use a spectacular spectrum of all kinds of eye-catching, sexy sources, but I'm just out for the basic information here- I could give a damn about people's opinion of the candidates and parties- that comes for later posts, this post is 'just the facts, ma'am' and as such, I went to a source that has all the info bundled up in one, easy to get place: the fine folks at the Canadian Broadcasting System.
So without further ado, I give you: Canada
The Info:
The Liberals:
--Leader: Paul Martin, Current Prime Minister
Alignment: Center Left
Number of Seats Held: 135 out of 308 seats in Canadian House of Commons
The Lowdown: These guys are pretty much the dominant party in Canadian politics and have been enjoying a pretty long 12 year stretch in charge of the place for quite some time now, mainly under the leadership of now ex-Prime Minister Jean Chretien- and now under his successor, Paul Martin. They've hit some rocky spots, however: first of all was a major storm of corruption (see below) that severely damaged their standings in the polls and left them running a minority government after elections this past June. So, the Liberals have kept limping along, striking a more conciliatory tone on the big issues and relying on the opposition parties to get work done. They brought the NDP (next up on our list!) in by promising to spend more money on New Democratic Priorities- and for about six months or so that worked. However, Prime Minister Paul Martin promised to call an election within 30 days of the final report on the corruption scandal, however, the opposition parties banded together to move that date forward, thus plunging Canada into it's current electoral brouhaha.
The New Democrats:
--Leader: Jack Layton
Alignment: Left
Number of Seats Held: 19 out of 308 seats in the Canadian House of Commons
The Lowdown: A solidly leftist party, the New Democrats have something of a Socialist flavor, being reluctant supporters of the Liberal Government and yet feeling that they haven't gone far enough. Job creation, de-criminalization of marijuana and improving the health care system are all big issues for this party- recently, their support got the Liberal Government's budget through the House of Commons, with an extra $4.6 billion added for NDP priorities. Yet they broke with the Liberals to force an election.
The Bloc Quebecois:
--Leader: Gilles Duceppe
Alignment: Sovreignty of Quebec
Number of Seats Held: 53 out of 308 seats in the Canadian House of Commons
The Lowdown: Pretty simple to explain: they want out of Canada and as soon as they can possibly manage it. Failing that, they're basically around to push Quebec's interests on the federal level- on fiscal matters, they're all about keeping as much money as they can handle under local control- and interestingly enough, they're advocates for a common currency of the Americas, which I didn't know.
The Conservatives:
--Leader: Steven Harper
Alignment: Right
Number of Seats Held: 99 out of 308 seats in the Canadian House of Commons (Official Opposition Party)
The Lowdown: Well, as you might expect, these guys are Conservative- and if any of this stuff sounds familiar to us down here in America, there's probably a reason for it. They push strongly for individual rights and responsibilities- free from governmental interference- fiscally, they're all about tax cuts, tough on crime, want to look at more local and private control for the Health Care system up there. (Sound like anyone we know? Or, rather, used to know?)
The Issues:
I'm not going to break down the whole chart of issues and all that jazz- if you really want to know that, you can go here and check this out- and see who you would vote for if you were in Canada, or something like that, I suppose. I will however, touch on this corruption thing and the perennial headaches of Quebec and The West.
The Corruption Scandal was basically this: the Liberal Government hired advertising firms (a few years back) to run campaigns, using pro-Liberal ad agencies, and then somehow no work got done and an awful lot of money got re-routed back into Liberal Party coffers. A big no-no. Anyway, they appointed a Judge, John Gomery to look into this mess and if you want to know more, here's his report.
Quebec and The West: Quebec's always been something of a sticky wicket in Canadian politics, as they're pretty blunt in their desire to get the hell out as fast as they can- last time they held a referendum on the issue was in 1995, and it came very close to passing (50.6% to 49.4%). However, that was the second rejection of independence for Quebec by Quebekers, the first being in 1980 by a 60-40 margin, and it sounds like the pro-Independance folks up there aren't going to go for a third try unless they're sure they've got a home run in the bag. But, the beast is stirring again, so we may see another referendum attempt in the next couple of years. The West too has been an issue in Canadian politics- but it's more of a mild headache than serious threat to Canadian stability- at least in the short term. Basically, the Western Provinces (British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan) don't like Ontario. They think that they have all the natural resources (which they do) and they should get a wee bit more control, money and respect for that. Instead, the general feeling is that they get continually shafted by the Federal Government in Ottawa. It's probably not going to be much of an issue in the election, but it's a long-standing gripe that has the potential (maybe) over the long term to morph into a Western twin to Quebec's eastern desire to get the hell out, as it were.
Current Polls and Prediction as of today:
Liberals: 36%
Conservatives: 27%
NDP: 17%
BQ: 14%
Green: 4%
Undecided: 14%
**Poll from 12/9-12/11, +/-3.1 percentage points
Prediction: No real change. I know it's still kind of early on in the game- we're only heading into week 3, and according to this poll, anyway, there are a pretty decent amount of undecided voters out there who are potentially up for grabs. Whichever party can get the majority of those folks to break for them could see some gains- or losses. But, the main opposition party, the Conservatives just aren't gaining any traction against the Liberals. Right out of the starting gate they were pretty strong, but now the air appears to have been let out of the balloon and it doesn't appear to be going back in yet. So that means, coalition deals will have to be made- and I think that favors the Liberals, as the NDP and the Greens are (potentially) more reliable allies, at least ideologically for them- and I can't see any reason that the Bloc Quebecois would join with a firmly pro-Federalist party like the Conservatives, even if it is just to keep the Liberals out.
I don't know. No one's gaining ground on the Liberals though, so this election could be very anti-climactic. I guess the opposition parties won't be so quick to force an election in the dead of winter next time though.
If you want some professional, slick coverage of this get your hands on the December 9th issue of The Economist. They've got a fourteen page report on all this stuff that is, of course, fantastic.
posted by Tom @ 3:49 PM
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